For The Love Of God, Do Not Pay For The Mayweather- Mc. Gregor Fight. There’s a fascinating boxing match on TV tonight between a faded, formerly great champion and a younger brawler with limited skills, but enough about the Cotto- Kamegai match on HBO. Instead of watching a real fight, millions will tune in for a glorified staring match between a middle- aged, retired, three- time ex- con and a semi- sentient growth protruding out of an oversized gorilla tattoo.

Even though it is a stupid mismatch with no athletic significance whatsoever, its record- setting success is inevitable and unsurprising. Not only do Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Conor Mc. Gregor boast two of the largest, loudest and least educated fan bases in the world, but it’s a freak show. And it’s exactly the right freak show for 2. TV star became president and an Olympic gold medalist raced a fake great white shark on television.

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And, hey, if Donald Trump (who, in addition to his close friendship with Mayweather, also boasts a loud, large, and poorly- educated fan base) were to fight a great white shark on TV, I’m sure that millions would tune in for that as well. Hell, I know I would. At least it would be a more competitive match- up than Mayweather- Mc. Gregor. I didn’t want to ever write about this fight. Yes, I’d opened my dumb mouth last year to opine it would never happen, but if you read past the headline, I was eerily prescient. I said it would only happen if Floyd ran into more trouble with the IRS.

Well, we now know that has happened. I also thought the UFC would never let it happen because it would screw up their then- hypothetical $4 billion sale, but now that sale has happened, and it has turned out to be a catastrophe (even more so, with the latest Jon Jones news), leaving the UFC’s new owners hemorrhaging money to an extent that federal regulators have basically told investors that they’d have to be stupid to lend them any more money.

The UFC has no choice but to let its only remaining bankable star do whatever he wants, even though no serious analyst would give Conor a snowball’s chance in the Las Vegas heat against Floyd fucking Mayweather. I also said that if it happened, it would be a dull, one- sided fight between a faded version of an already dull fighter and his own personal Vanilla Ice, a man who has logged fewer boxing rounds against professional fighters in the past decade than has Mitt Romney. But even that is way too optimistic. Far too optimistic. This fight is going to make Mayweather’s snoozefest against Manny Pacquiao look like Hagler- Hearns. This fight is going to make the Trump- Clinton debates or the audiobook of Paradise Lost look like Hagler- Hearns. Let’s begin with the most obvious reason this fight will suck: Punching in boxing and MMA are totally different enterprises.

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Forget that the gloves are different and that MMA fighters fight barefoot, and focus on the most important and least understood element of boxing: balance. Boxers—at least good boxers—are masters of maintaining balance at all times. You can neither punch effectively nor absorb a clean punch if you are not on balance. This is why boxers all generally fight from similar stances: hands up, legs crouched, feet spread shoulder length apart, never bringing their body square or perpendicular to their opponent. It’s the most balanced position one can be in. MMA fighters, however, face a completely different set of challenges. They need to be able to guard their entire bodies, not just their midsections and head.

They need to defend against kicks, elbows, and takedown attempts. The result is that MMA fighters do not have the luxury of assuming such a perfectly balanced stance. A boxer is a baseball catcher, an MMA fighter is a soccer goalie.

Forget that the gloves are different and that MMA fighters fight barefoot, and focus on the most important and least understood element of boxing: balance. Boxers—at least good boxers—are masters of maintaining balance at all times. You can neither punch effectively nor absorb a clean punch if you are not on balance. What does this mean? It means any claim that Conor has to being a powerful puncher in MMA (putting aside the Nate Diaz evidence to the contrary) is almost meaningless when trying to project how he’ll perform in a boxing ring. It’s like trying to anticipate how a superstar rugby player will perform if randomly tossed into an NFL game for the first time.

Sure, some of the activity may look superficially similar, but you wouldn’t be able to project with any confidence how his tackling ability will compare. But that’s not even the biggest problem Conor faces. Watch Love Everlasting Online Forbes more. The problem is that even if his MMA form translates to boxing (it won’t), his style is quite possibly the worst possible style to try and beat a guy like Mayweather.

You see, Mc. Gregor is at his most powerful as a counter- puncher. Everyone remembers the thrilling knockout Mc. Gregor scored against José Aldo. Devoid of context, it’s perhaps easy to imagine him doing something similar to the similarly- sized Mayweather. But there is so much context.

Aldo was knocked out when he recklessly leaped in, throwing a wild hook against Mc. Gregor, who landed a much sharper and faster hook. Look at Mc. Gregor’s overwhelming display against Eddie Alvarez and you’ll see something similar; Conor landed his best shots when Alvarez charged in at him.

But Floyd Mayweather will never come in on an opponent. Floyd Mayweather is a mirage, an oasis that evaporates before your eyes as you get too close. Although his low- output fighting style is occasionally mistaken for cowardice, it’s actually the opposite: Mayweather is one of the few fighters who is brave enough to let his opponents take their best shot without flinching. It is precisely this confidence in his ability to block or elude punches that makes Mayweather so effective.

While most other fighters tense up under pressure, Mayweather casually dips and slides out of danger: he is the hyperspace button in Defender. Once his opponent misses, generally leaving himself wide open, Mayweather responds with his best weapon: a straight right hand down the middle that lands with just enough force to momentarily paralyze his foe while Floyd casually resets his position. So, how does one beat an elusive phantom like Mayweather? There’s only one proven formula, most effectively put to use by José- Luis Castillo and Marcos Maidana (both of whom arguably deserved to win their first fights versus Mayweather), and that is to smother him. If you bull rush Mayweather, force him to the ropes, and unload with a barrage of punches from all angles, you both minimize his ability to elude and also prevent the conservative Mayweather from throwing his counter- right. So, is there any chance Mc. Gregor could employ that strategy?

There is not. Not only is Mc. Gregor most effective when his opponents come to him but, his reputation for exciting fights notwithstanding, Mc. Gregor is (by boxing standards) a supremely inactive fighter. In the UFC, Mc. Gregor averages about 5 strikes per minute in fights that go a maximum of 1.

Mc. Gregor’s case) routinely last far less than that. To effectively mount an offense like Castillo or Maidana requires throwing close to 3. In other words, Conor would have to be nearly nine times as active as he generally is with his hands (again, while trying a new sport, wearing heavier equipment, and fighting the most elusive fighter of his generation). What if Mayweather allows Conor to land a punch out of boredom, or a decline in skills due to his age (a fact Mayweather has been reduced to citing to make the fight seem even remotely interesting)? Well, the odds are pretty good it won’t matter.

And what if Mayweather allows Conor to land a punch out of boredom, or a decline in skills due to his age (a fact Mayweather has been reduced to citing to make the fight seem even remotely interesting)? Well, the odds are pretty good it won’t matter. Floyd has actually shown a pretty good chin in his career.